Donald Trump slams the Russia-China alliance as a direct threat to U.S. dominance, pinning the blame on Biden’s weak policies. His bold promise? To shatter their partnership. But his reckless 25% tariffs on Indian goods - with a menacing threat of a 100% hike if India keeps buying Russian oil and weapons - might just backfire spectacularly.
These tariffs aren’t just economic muscle-flexing; they’re a gamble that could push India straight into China’s orbit. India and China, despite past clashes, already collaborate through BRICS and SCO. With India doubling down on its Russian ties - snapping up 31% of Russia’s oil exports and holding high-level talks in Moscow - it’s clear New Delhi won’t bow to U.S. pressure. Instead, Trump’s hardball tactics risk forging a new power bloc: India, China, and Russia united against American interests.
This could gut U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific, where India is a linchpin against China’s rise in QUAD. History proves trade wars, like the U.S.-China tariff saga, often breed unintended alliances. Is Trump blindly accelerating the very global realignment he claims to fight?
This risk becomes even starker when you consider that, over the past two and a half years (January 2023 to July 2025), China and India have been the two largest buyers of Russian fossil fuels. They have more in common than Washington likes to admit – funnelling billions into Russia’s economy, securing favourable oil deals, and cementing supply chains that the U.S. cannot easily disrupt.
That shared energy dependency is not just commerce; it’s a strategic bond that can outlast temporary diplomatic rifts. By targeting India with tariffs while leaving China untouched, Trump risks strengthening one of the few major areas where Asia’s two giants align – a mutual reliance on Russian oil – and accelerating their drift into a coordinated front with Moscow.
