Martin Armstrong, the legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst renowned for his “Socrates” predictive computer program, has delivered a dire forecast for the world’s economic and political future beginning in 2025. According to Armstrong, the coming years will witness a cascade of depressions, sovereign defaults, debt crises, and large-scale wars that will reshape global power dynamics and economies alike.
Armstrong’s accuracy over the past three decades is well established. He famously predicted the exact day of the 1987 stock market crash, foresaw the dot-com boom and bust of 2000, accurately called the 2008–2009 Great Recession, and, more recently, forecasted Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential landslide months before the election.
Turning Point: May 7, 2024 — The Beginning of a Global Downturn
Armstrong identifies May 7, 2024 as a critical turning point, coinciding with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration and an attempted assassination of Ukrainian President Zelensky by Ukrainian colonels. He states:
“The last one turned on May 7th of last year. That was the same day Putin had his inauguration, and it was the same day a couple of Ukrainian colonels tried to assassinate Zelensky. From there, we are turning down into a global recession, which won’t bottom until about 2028.”
Following this date, central banks worldwide began cutting interest rates, with Canada being among the first. Armstrong forecasts:
“It’s going to be more of a depression in Europe, a very sharp recession in China, and it won’t be as bad in the United States… When you create a debt crisis, that’s what causes a depression. The stock market going down is the least damage to an economy.”
Europe’s Financial Crisis: Sovereign Debt, Shrinking Economies, and Rising Political Risk
Europe faces an enormous burden of trillions of dollars of unpayable debt, compounded by policies such as negative interest rates since 2014 that Armstrong warns were catastrophic mistakes:
“They went to negative interest rates in 2014. I warned them. I said listen; you are out of your minds. You are siphoning money out of the bank reserves and pension funds. It’s a basket case.”
The shrinking number of viable businesses in Germany, which constitutes 25% of the European Union’s economy, underscores the depth of the crisis:
“It really is. They have no appreciable economy. It’s shrinking; the number of actual businesses has shrunk in Germany.”
Armstrong bluntly assesses the political stakes, observing that European leaders see no alternative to war as their economies collapse and social unrest grows:
“The leadership knows if they don’t have war, the people will come after them.”
The Coming War: Europe’s Ambition to Conquer Russia’s Vast Resources
Armstrong reveals that European elites believe they can conquer Russia and seize control of its enormous resource wealth, which he values at approximately $75 trillion. He cites confidential sources “very high up” in the EU who confirm this intent:
“Europe does not want peace. Look at things the EU has said: that Russia is too big and has to be broken up. They really do think they can conquer Russia… Once they get their hands on that, they will rise to the top of countries of the world, like the Roman Empire will be resurrected or something.”
Despite these ambitions, Armstrong predicts Europe will suffer a crushing defeat:
“They will lose bigtime. The third time is not going to be the charm… The euro will disappear, not the dollar.”
Military Mobilization: Europe’s Desperation for War
The escalation is already underway, with virtually every European country reinstating military drafts. Germany has reportedly called men up to age 60 for service, and Poland has ordered all able-bodied men to attend military training. Armstrong interprets this as a sign of desperation amid economic collapse:
“Without war, Europe is going to collapse. It’s in a sovereign debt crisis. They have done everything against the economy.”
The timing fits Armstrong’s prediction that war in Ukraine would escalate after May 15, 2025, the exact day peace talks between Russia and Ukraine abruptly ended after just two hours:
“After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026. If I am Putin, there is no way I am signing a peace deal. Putin signed a peace deal (in 2015) and what did they do? They built an army while Russia didn’t.”
Armstrong underscores that this is not a localized conflict but a war between Russia and NATO:
“Putin knows and understands this is not a just a war with Ukraine, this is a war with NATO.”
The Catastrophic Global Consequences: China’s Entry and Massive Casualties
Armstrong foresees China joining Russia’s side, dramatically expanding the conflict:
“China will come in on the side of Russia, and there could be as many as one billion dead and wounded as a result.”
This would mark one of the most devastating conflicts in human history.
The United States: The Crucial Call to Leave NATO
Armstrong urges the United States to withdraw from NATO to avoid being dragged into Europe’s collapsing economy and protracted war:
“I have been talking to people in Washington, and I have told them to ‘Get the hell out of NATO.’ There are plenty of people warming up to that idea.”
He has reportedly been told by influential Capitol Hill figures:
“You’re right, we agree… I have been complaining about this for months, and my view is Europe is committing suicide, and let’s not be part of it this time.”
Recent news headlines indicate this possibility is gaining traction, with the U.S. initiating talks on withdrawing troops from Europe. Armstrong believes if the U.S. exits NATO, it will become the safe haven for fleeing capital:
“Capital will leave Europe and flow into the U.S. as a safe haven.”
Armstrong also highlights that despite talk of “de-dollarization,” the U.S. financial markets remain dominant:
“You hear about this de-dollarization, and it’s not happening. The capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange is worth more than all of Europe combined.”
Additional Predictions: Gold, U.S. Politics, and India-Pakistan Conflict
Armstrong anticipates the price of gold will soar to $5,000 per ounce, but only once war fully breaks out in Europe and Ukraine.
He also foresees political upheaval in the United States:
“The Democrat party will split in two, and they will not retake the House of Representatives in 2026.”
Regarding South Asia, Armstrong’s “Socrates” computer predicts:
“My computer says [the conflict between Pakistan and India] blows up.”
Armstrong’s Personal History: Refusing to Facilitate Regime Change in Russia
Armstrong’s views on the current geopolitical crisis are shaped by his own past experience. In the early 2000s, he was asked to funnel $10 billion into a scheme intended to take over Russia’s natural resources via New York’s financial markets. He refused:
“I said no, I’m out. I am not into regime change.”
As a result, Armstrong was illegally imprisoned for seven years under civil contempt by then-U.S. Attorney James Comey, who later became FBI Director:
“Comey was the US Attorney in New York, and he kept me in contempt until the Supreme Court intervened… They wanted control of all Russian oil, gold, diamonds, platinum — you name it.”
Armstrong sees today’s European war ambitions as a continuation of that agenda:
“They want war because they are in a sovereign debt crisis, and pensions, banks, and bonds are in deep trouble in Europe.”
Conclusion: A Grim Forecast and a Final Plea
Martin Armstrong’s analysis outlines a bleak future marked by economic collapse, military conflict, and political turmoil starting from 2025 and lasting several years. He stresses the urgency for the United States to disentangle itself from NATO and the European quagmire to preserve economic stability and avoid catastrophic losses.
His final hope lies in American leadership recognizing these dangers and acting decisively:
“Let’s all hope President Trump gets us out of NATO before it’s too late.”
Sources:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/they-want-war-martin-armstrong-slams-european-leaders-reinstating-military-drafts
https://usawatchdog.com/global-wars-depressions-defaults-debt-crisis-begin-in-2025-martin-armstrong/