1. Bitcoin BTC is still the core asset, with a stable trend but can clearly reflect the cycle rotation and policy impact;
2. MSTR is a high-leverage bet on BTC, which is the most violent when it rises and the most violent when it falls back;
3. COIN is greatly affected by trading popularity and regulatory policies, and its trend is close to market sentiment fluctuations;
4. HOOD is increasingly moving away from the crypto asset market and moving towards comprehensive financial technology.
The following is a phased interpretation:
1. 2021 High to 2022 Low: A Brutal Fall • The entire crypto market plummeted as Luna, Celsius, and FTX collapsed:
•BTC decline: -78%
•MSTR: -80%
•COIN: -86%
•HOOD: -74%
•MSTR and COIN, as highly correlated crypto asset companies, fell more sharply.
2. Early 2023 to early 2024: Strong rebound •BTC rose 352% from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2024.
•MSTR rose by 1242% during the same period, showing its high Beta (leverage sensitivity) to BTC prices.
•COIN rose 750%, benefiting from a rebound in trading volume and clearer regulation.
•HOOD only rose 170%, significantly lagging behind, indicating its marginalization in the Web3 field.
3. March-September 2024: Pullback period• Labeled as “A Healthy Pullback”.
• Retracement range:
•BTC: -28%
•MSTR: -37%
•COIN: -41%
•HOOD: On the contrary, it rose slightly by 7%, probably due to its more stable traditional financial business.
4. September 2024-early 2025: Rise again • The market confirms the trend reversal and welcomes another influx of institutional funds, especially the crypto trading boom related to the 2025 US election:
•BTC up 94%
•MSTR: 335%
•COIN: 106%
•HOOD: 260%
5. January-April 2025: Macro and policy uncertainty triggers another decline • All assets fall sharply:
•BTC, HOOD: -28%
•COIN: -50%
•MSTR: -42%